List of p(doom) values
p(doom) is the probability of very bad outcomes (e.g. human extinction) as a result of AI. This most often refers to the likelihood of AI taking over from humanity, but different scenarios can also constitute "doom". For example, a large portion of the population dying due to a novel biological weapon created by AI, social collapse due to a large-scale cyber attack, or AI causing a nuclear war. Note that not everyone is using the same definition when talking about their p(doom) values. Most notably the time horizon is often not specified, which makes comparing a bit difficult.
-
Yann LeCun
one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta(less likely than an asteroid) -
Vitalik Buterin
Ethereum founder -
Geoff Hinton
one of three godfathers of AI(wipe out humanity in the next 20 years) -
Machine learning researchers
(From 2023, depending on the question design, median values: 5-10%) -
Lina Khan
head of FTC -
Paul Christiano
(Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI) -
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X -
Dario Amodei
CEO of Anthropic -
Yoshua Bengio
one of three godfathers of AI -
Emmett Shear
Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI -
AI Safety Researchers
(Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021) -
Scott Alexander
Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten -
Eli Lifland
-
AI engineer
(Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed) -
Joep Meindertsma
Founder of PauseAI(The remaining 60% consists largely of "we can pause".) -
Holden Karnofsky
Executive Director of Open Philanthropy -
Jan Leike
alignment lead at OpenAI -
Zvi Mowshowitz
AI researcher -
Daniel Kokotajlo
Forecaster & former OpenAI researcher -
Dan Hendrycks
Head of Center for AI Safety -
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of MIRI -
Roman Yampolskiy
AI safety scientist
What about yours?
We've built the AI Outcomes App to help you think about how probable the various outcomes from AI are.
Try it out